Cuba’s economy will grow 3.7% this year, up from 3.1% in 2012, while the deficit will represent 3.6% of GDP in 2013, down from 3.8% last year (equivalent to 2.167 billion pesos).

Those are among the numbers released by Cuba’s National Assembly during its December session, which reported that most results fell short of 2012 goals. In particular, foreign investments came in 19% below target, mainly because of a slowdown in construction.

Also not meeting goals were the tourism, agriculture and industrial sectors, as well as food sales through state channels. Oil, gas and nickel production stagnated at 2011 levels, though the sugar industry is recovering slowly, with a 20% increase in output last year.

During 2013, the state will collect 47 billion pesos in revenue (up 1.8%) while shelling out 50 billion pesos in expenditures (up 1.6%).

State investments will grow by 34%, according to the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, with 79% of such investments focused on “productive activities” — though no specific numbers or projects were released.

Lina Pedraza, minister of finance and prices, said the top sources of government revenue are retail food sales, state corporations and businesses, and the “non-state” or private sector, which contributes 14% of the total.

As usual, Pedraza’s report, as well as that of Economy Minister Adel Yzquierdo, made no specific references to the role of remittances, nickel exports, medical services, foreign investments, foreign credits or loans.

Cuba spent more than $1.5 billion on food imports in 2012 and will spend a similar amount this year, said the report, while agriculture, industry and sugar production will remain at 2012 levels.

The labor market continues to unfold as predicted last year by CubaNews. In 2012, the state sector shrank by 228,000 jobs (compared to 137,000 jobs in 2011).

This trend is likely to continue — not just as a result of state policies but also because of the many thousands of Cubans who are quitting their low-paying state jobs and moving to the private sector.

Jobs in that sector jumped by 23% in 2012, say official figures, but statistics alone cannot reflect the current underground economy in which hundreds of thousands of people are finding more rewarding jobs in agriculture, services and other productive activities.

The coexistence of a state economy, a private sector and a large, informal underground economy renders official figures unreliable. Yzquierdo said 3.8% of the workforce is jobless, but added that another one million workers are not “actively seeking employment.”

This weird phrasing is inaccurate and misleading because these people are informally employed in all kinds of jobs and private businesses. The problem is that many of them refuse to register and pay taxes — and at the same time, the Cuban state refuses to recognize their existence.

This mutual denial represents a major obstacle to economic stability and a huge black hole when seeking reliable statistics.

Last year, 196 of the 480 economic activities controlled by the state (or nearly 41% of the total) did not meet their goals — the result of a still highly centralized economy.

The picture becomes even worse when subsidies are added into the equation.

Although many subsidies have been abolished over the last 20 years — they were slashed by 38% in 2012 alone — they continue to take a heavy toll on the economy.

Some 1,000 state entities have been operating in the red for decades, and the total amount of subsidies has never been disclosed.

About 5 billion pesos in social security benefits are now extended to 1.7 million Cubans, with another 815 million pesos going to low-income families.

In 2013, state funds will have to provide for 864,100 elementary and secondary-school students, as well as 233,300 higher-education students, 152 hospitals, 452 local clinics and 11,504 family doctors.

In addition, huge sums from the 2012 and 2013 budgets will have to be allocated to help Santiago de Cuba and other eastern provinces recover from last year’s Hurricane Sandy.

Cuba’s new taxation law, which took effect Jan. 1, will offer flexibility for individual farmers and “finqueros” or “usfructuarios” (those receiving land in usufruct), while nine different taxes will be phased in gradually. Taxes on individual income and housing will be the last to take effect, one year from now.

The newly published code constitutes the first comprehensive taxation in Cuba since the 1959 revolution abolished nearly all taxes (see CubaNews, December 2012, page 7).

As in past years, one thing the National Assembly neglected to discuss was a new foreign investment law.

Debate over this law was postponed yet again, despite official promises from the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Investment that it would be debated — and despite the fact that this legislation is one of the most important Lineamientos [guidelines] adopted by the Sixth Party Congress in 2011.

Nothing’s been said officially about this, probably because the foreign investment law is especially subject to last-minute factors and adjustments that depend on various factors.Among them: what to expect from the White House, the delicate health of President Hugo Chávez and the future of Venezuelan oil subsidies; relations with the 27-member European Union, and potential opportunities with such emerging giants as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Shortcomings and setbacks are addressed year after year in every report delivered at the National Assembly.

Raúl Castro repeatedly blames this on sheer negligence, business mismanagement, frequent violations of contracts and persistent defaults, obstructionist attitudes by bureaucrats and managers, growing corruption, limited resources, outdated technologies and the impact of the U.S. trade embargo.

Yet policies and actions are needed to overcome this other “blockade” which has very little to do with U.S. hostility. As it was frequently said in the early 1970s: “No me le eches más la culpa al bloqueo” [don’t blame it on the blockade anymore] — advice well worth heeding today.