This month’s so-called ‘‘status quo” election may also mean status quo when it comes to U.S. policy on Cuba, say analysts contacted by CubaNews.

On Nov. 6, voters re-elected President Barack Obama, kept the Senate in Democratic hands and maintained a robust Republican majority in the House. That’s good news for those who want to ease the embargo. Republican challenger Mitt Romney had promised that if elected, he’d bring back Bush-era restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba.

And the good news for those who support the embargo is that there’s little chance of any more openings to Cuba. The Obama administration says it’ll make no new overtures unless Cuba releases Alan Gross, a U.S. Agency for International Development subcontractor now serving a 15-year jail sentence in Havana for distributing smuggled high-tech equipment on the island.

“I don’t think a lot is going to happen as long as Alan Gross is in jail,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue.

Others, who advocate new openings to the Castro regime, told CubaNews that progress can be made even without Cuba releasing the 63-year-old Maryland man.

“I think there will be changes, but they would be slow,” said Wayne Smith, the first head of the U.S. Interests Section in Cuba, established during Jimmy Carter’s presidency.

Smith suggested the United States resume bilateral talks and remove Cuba from the State Department list of countries that support terrorism (the only others on that list are Iran, Sudan and Syria). Smith said such overtures might open the door to talks about Gross’s release.

But the White House sees no urgency to go beyond the policy changes it made during Obama’s first term  an easing of Cuban-American and other U.S. travel to Cuba and an end to some restrictions on remittances.

One change during Obama’s second term that could have an impact is the pending retirement of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

She hasn’t announced it, but did tell reporters last year she wouldn’t be serving a second term. Former President Bill Clinton recently said his wife is tired and deserves a rest. Heading the list of possible replacements to Clinton is Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Kerry has criticized the embargo as well as the USAID program that funded Gross’ activities; he also blocked funding for the agency’s Cuba activities. But Kerry eventually released his hold on the funds after USAID promised to make small changes to that program. Robert Muse, a Washington attorney involved in Cuba issues, said a new secretary of state could make changes in personnel that would please those seeking closer relations between the United States and Cuba.

“The time to repair relations with Cuba is now, not when there’s a ‘’biological solution’ [to the Castro government],” said Muse, adding that any change in U.S.-Cuba policy would come not from Congress but from the White House. “Congress is as strongly pro-embargo today as it was before the election.”

There are some notable changes, though.

One reason for this is the pro-embargo US-Cuba Democracy Political Action Committee, which about $320,000 to congressional candidates — many of them now freshmen lawmakers from both parties.

Rep. lleana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), a Cuban-American lawmaker who for years has led the charge against any opening in the embargo, will leave her high-profile post as head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee because Republican rules term limit chairmanships.

She’ll likely be replaced by Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), who’s also a strong embargo supporter but has fewer Cuban exiles as constituents. Therefore, Smith would be under less pressure to seek sanctions against the government in Havana.

Others vying to head the foreign affairs panel are Reps. Elton Gallegly and Dana Rohrabacher, both of California, and Donald Manzullo (R-IL) all hardliners when it comes to the embargo.

In a bitter race between incumbents, the top Democrat on the panel, Rep. Howard Ber-man, was defeated by a fellow California Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Brad Sherman.

Berman, who was tepid in his support for loosening the embargo, is likely to be re-placed by Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), an embargo supporter.

And if Kerry goes to the State Department, there’s a good chance Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), an ardent opponent of the Castro regime, would become head of the Senate International Affairs Committee.

In addition, the top Republican on that panel, Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar who pushed for openings to Cuba is leaving the Senate, having been defeated in a primary. He’ll probably be replaced by Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), an embargo supporter.

Among other changes in the 113th Congress, Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) a leader in the anti-embargo movement on Capitol Hill has been elected to the Senate, where he could have more influence. But another hardline Cuban-American, Republican Ted Cruz of Texas, will join Menendez and Marco Rubio (R-FL) in the Senate. “I don’t anticipate any changes in Cuba policy in either direction in Congress,” said Cuba expert Phil Peters of the Lexington Institute.”

Even so, some embargo foes are still optimistic. Smith, for example, is encouraged by the defeat of hardline exile Rep. David Rivera (R-FL) by Joe García, a Miami-born Democrat of Cuban heritage who takes a moderate stance on the embargo.

“[García] supports Obama’s Cuba policy and his election shows a change in the Cuban-American community,” Smith said. “That’s important.”

Peters said recent moves toward economic liberalization in Cuba may prompt a positive response from Obama in his second term, telling us “the changes in Cuba are important and at some point the administration will react to that.”

But what about Alan Gross? Smith said the U.S. insistence on Cuba releasing its prisoner unconditionally is “stupidity on our part.”

Peters agrees, arguing that portraying him as a humanitarian case instead of someone who was acting on Washington’s behalf against the Castro government “is a formula for keeping him in jail.” Both Smith and Peters say the Obama administration should offer Cuba something for Gross’s release. Maybe not what Havana demands the freeing of four Cuban spies who remain behind bars in the United States but something.

Yet 44 senators who once worked toward openings with Cuba have sent a clear message to President Raúl Castro. A letter drafted by Sens. Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Jerry Moran (R-KS) both critics of the embargo calls for unconditional release of the imprisoned American.

“Mr. Gross’s ongoing detention in your country presents a major obstacle to any further actions to improve our bilateral relations,” the letter said. “We very much hope that you will take our concerns seriously. As we approach the three-year anniversary of Alan’s imprisonment, we call on you to take action and grant him the belated release his situation warrants.”

In addition, lawmakers such as Moran and Sen. Richard Durbin (D-IN), who once tried to make it easier for Cuba to purchase U.S. agricultural products, vow to do nothing until Gross is freed.