Cuba could be lucrative destination for Russian investment, says RIAC scholar
Russia needs to step up trade ties with its longtime ally Cuba, says an academic affiliated with the Moscow-based Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
In an Aug. 20 report, Dr. Eduard Belyi acknowledged not only Russia’s long-standing relationship with the Castro regime, but recent economic activities aimed at reviving trade with the island nation that crashed when the former Soviet Union cut off lucrative trade preferences in the early 1990s.
In February, Moscow and Havana agreed to settle Cuba’s estimated $30 billion debt, which is now partially written off, with a 10-year refinancing plan for the balance.
Russia has also agreed to lease three Ilyushin-96-400 long-haul jets, three Antonov AN-158 regional aircraft and two Tupolev TU-204SM mid-range aircraft to Cuba.
The Russians have also agreed to build an international air transport hub at a former airbase in the town of San Antonio de los Baños, just outside Havana. Meanwhile, Russian energy conglomerate Zarubezhneft will conduct oil exploration efforts off the northwest coast of Cuba, and onshore at Boca de Jaruco.
Meanwhile, the Moscow-based research firm Russian Market Report revealed that Cuba once a major source of sugar for Russia supplied only 2% of Russian sugar needs in 2011, with the bulk (82%) coming from Brazil (1.8 million tons worth $1.35 billion).
Belyi says Cuba should try to regain its place in the Russian sugar market.
“Today, Cuban sugar comes to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus through traders, which makes it significantly more expensive,” he said.
“The same pattern is used for Cuban coffee, citrus, tropical fruits, tobacco and marine products delivered to Russia. The elimination of intermediaries from the scheme could notably raise the efficiency of Russian-Cuban trade and considerably increase the supplies of unique biotechnological preparations, medications and other items to Russia.”
Belyi says tourism is another area ripe for development. Last year, 87,000 Russians visited the island, an 11% jump from 2011. Several factors favor continued growth, he said.
“Rising tensions in Turkey and Egypt still Russia’s top attractions will naturally reorient Russian tourist flows to other places including Cuba,” he said. “Its tourist services are developed enough to draw Canadian, European and Latin American travelers, while the price-quality ratio is quite satisfactory.”.
With Cuba still flooded with Soviet-era products from boxy Lada automobiles to farming equipment Belyi also sees a growing Cuban market for Russian spare parts. Raúl Castro’s economic reforms have created a new class of cuentapropistas (including taxistas) who’ll need Russian components to help them run their businesses. More importantly, assuming such entrepreneurs succeed, they’ll actually have cash to pay for them.
“Russian businesses do enjoy advantages vis-à-vis their competitors as many Cuban industrial, farming and transportation facilities are equipped with Soviet machinery, some enterprises still use Soviet technologies, and many engineers and technicians have been trained in the USSR,” said Belyi.
Another area that could see more Russian investments is the real-estate sector.
With the Cuban government’s anti-corruption campaign driving away at least some British, Canadian and other Western investors, wealthy Russians and Moscow-based growth funds can step in and buy into such projects.
“Non-residents are allowed to purchase residential and other buildings,” said Belyi.
“Even more, in 2013, the land lease period for foreigners was extended from 49 to 99 years. While stimulating the priority development of joint entrepreneurship, Decree Law 77 [Cuba’s foreign investment law] does not rule out the establishment of enterprises with exclusively foreign participation.”
He added: “Foreign and national shares in JVs are not regulated either, since formally the ratio could reach 99:1. Cuban legislation is much more liberal than similar Soviet perestroika-period laws that allowed only a 49% foreign share in joint ventures.”
The audience Belyi speaks to is the Russian power elite. RIAC’s membership includes top executives from the country’s banking sector, the investor conglomerate Alfa Group Consortium, Lukoil, heavy industries like Eurocement Group, media outlets such as RIA-Novosti, lawmakers from the State Duma (Russia’s legislature) and the Russian Defense Ministry.
The challenge is for those like Belyi to convince Russia’s rising stars tycoons like Chelsea soccer team owner Roman Abramovich and Brookly Nets basketball team owner Mikhail Prokhorov to help bankroll Cuba’s ongoing economic reforms.
The London-based alternative assets research firm Preqin says 64 private equity firms are based in Russia.
Among the top Russian-based fund managers: Baring Vostok Capital Partners, Russia Partners, Russia Direct Investment Fund, DST Global and Elbrus Capital. Such entities have raised an aggregate $7.3 billion in capital over the last 10 years, or 63% of total capital raised by fund managers in that region.
Given that most of their investments are devoted to ventures within Russia and other former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan, even if a fraction of such capital made its way into Cuba, that would inject new energy into Russian-Cuban trade relations.
“If Russia fails to work hard in this direction, the highly promising Cuban market will definitely go to other players,” he warned.
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